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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd