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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.