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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."